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Introduction: The recent breakout in the financial markets has brought attention to a long-term triangle pattern that began forming in February 2023. On July 12, 2023, the breakout occurred as a response to the release of the year-over-year (YoY) inflation numbers, which came in lower than expected at 3%. This blog post delves into the significance of this technical pattern and how the inflation figures, combined with market expectations of a potential pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), acted as catalysts for the downside breakout. The Formation of the Triangle Pattern: Since February 2023, market participants … Read More

As we move into Q2 2023, let’s reflect on the US economic performance in Q4 2022. We’ll examine GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, interest rates, and consumer spending. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth: The US economy experienced moderate growth in Q4 2022. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6%, slightly lower than the previous quarter’s 3.2%. The growth was mainly driven by increases in inventory investment and consumer spending. However, there was a decrease in housing investment. Profits decreased by 2.0% in Q4, indicating some challenges in the business sector. Inflation: Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price … Read More

Hello Traders! This week is not so busy but has some important press releases coming up. The biggest event of the week is on Tuesday with the Midterm Elections in the US. Monday China’s Balance of trade and Import and Export numbers during the Asian session. Switzerland’s Unemployment numbers, German Industrial Production and Global Construction PMI numbers, UK House Price Index and we have BOE and ECB speeches as well during the European Session. There is nothing big happening during the US session in terms of news releases. Nevertheless, we have some FED speeches towards the end of the day. … Read More

Hello Traders! At the end of a very busy week, I am reading the news out there. Here are some of the articles that caught my attention and my thoughts on them: In the US: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/something-has-snapped-unexplained-23-million-jobs-gap-emerges-broken-payrolls-report?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1045 https://seekingalpha.com/news/3898314-bumper-profits-is-a-windfall-tax-on-energy-producers-a-good-idea In Japan: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Japan-pension-whale-GPIF-suffers-longest-losing-streak-since-2009?utm_campaign=GL_JP_update&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=4&pub_date=20221105090000&seq_num=11&si=711156 https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-to-rely-on-debt-for-nearly-80-of-200bn-stimulus-package?utm_campaign=GL_JP_update&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=4&pub_date=20221105090000&seq_num=14&si=711156 https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Travel-Leisure/Tourists-return-to-Japan-but-where-are-the-workers?utm_campaign=GL_JP_update&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=4&pub_date=20221105090000&seq_num=2&si=711156

Hello Traders, this is Daniel from CPT. In the past week, we have seen several data releases from around the world giving us a better view of how the economies are behaving. Among all of them, the FED meeting was the most awaited event. In this blog post, we’ll take a closer look at the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates and what it means for the economy and markets. Fed’s Decision to Raise Interest Rates As expected, the Fed announced a rise of the interest rate by 75 bps to 4.00% to combat high inflation. Mohammed El Erian reminds … Read More